16 Thoughts, Final Quarter Edition
Jan 21, 2020 20:38:51 GMT
Josh - Dallas, Dave - Calgary, and 5 more like this
Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2020 20:38:51 GMT
16 Thoughts … Final Quarter Edition
We’re into the final inter-divisional battles, with only the homestretch left to go. There are a few playoff locks, some clear-cut division winners, and the bottom feeders have separated themselves, but there is still a big jumble from seeds 5 through 12 that will give fans plenty of reason to pay attention the final six weeks. Without further ado, let’s get into the battles (and locks)…
1. Presidents trophy a two-horse race?
It seems strange to write, but the two-time defending champion Minnesota Wild may already be out of the running for the President’s trophy. Currently sitting at 264 points, Minnesota finds itself 28 points behind Montreal and 42 behind New York for the league lead. And considering that the Wild have Dallas, St. Louis, Montreal and New York still to go in the final stretch, Minnesota seems like a pretty good bet to find itself in Seed #3 when the playoffs kick off.
Which leaves Montreal and New York as the last two contenders standing. Although the Rangers are up by 14 points heading into the final quarter, Montreal has the better overall stats and the pedigree of back-to-back Presidents trophies on its resume. Plus the teams have a week 19 matchup that will be must-watch viewing. But don’t underestimate the impact that the Metro division may have on this race. Montreal plays three playoff teams in Toronto, Buffalo and Ottawa in its next three weeks. In that same time, the Rangers play the Islanders, Devils and Flyers – teams that New York has collectively gone 58-19-13 against so far this year.
Keeping in mind that if everything holds to form, the Presidents Trophy winner should also avoid Minnesota until at least the finals, and this may be the most important race either of these franchises have ever embarked upon.
2. Fourth seed a lock?
Since losing to Colorado in week 10, the Vegas Golden Knights have been on a tear. The Knights have won 6 straight, including impressive victories over playoff contenders Ottawa and St. Louis in the last two weeks. Robin Lehner has been the stud the Knights were looking for in net. Vegas now finds itself 34 points up on Calgary for the Pacific Division lead.
If Vegas can maintain that lead during the next few weeks, it enters a home stretch of the schedule with matchups against bottom-feeders Winnipeg and New Jersey to pad some stats. There is a realistic chance that the Golden Knights could challenge the Wild for seed #3 – although it says here that Vegas will end up right where they are now, as a very dangerous #4 seed with the capacity for a long playoff run.
3. Will the real playoff contenders please stand up?
There are five good teams in a dog fight for the final four playoff seeds. And making it more interesting, they are all in either the Atlantic or the Central. Prime viewing abounds all through the divisional matchups over the next few weeks.
Currently the standings are:
Toronto in fifth with 255 points
Buffalo in sixth with 250 points
Dallas in seventh with 229 points
Ottawa in eighth with 229 points
St. Louis in ninth with 225 points
Toronto finds itself alone in 5th, after an amazing mid-season resurgence. Buffalo is only 5 points back of Toronto, sitting in 6th. And the Senators are only 26 back of the Leafs, sitting in 8th, although Ottawa has been in freefall losing the last three and four of five.
As of now the Leafs have beaten Buffalo twice, gone 1-1 against the Senators, and also split against the Canadiens. Buffalo has split against Ottawa but lost twice to Montreal. And Ottawa has also lost to Montreal twice. How those three teams handle the interdivisional matchups over the next three weeks may decide the fate of the playoff picture.
But don’t forget about the Central. Dallas has rebounded after a really poor start to the season, going 4-0-1 over its last five to climb into 7th. St. Louis, on the other hand, has gone 2-6-1 over its last nine weeks to fall out of the playoff picture entirely after an incredible start. Both of these teams could find a way in, especially if they can pad their totals against the Jets.
Keep in mind that the final week of the season sees Dallas vs Toronto in a tantalizing match that could decide the playoff fate of a bunch of teams.
4. Bubble teams hanging around, but do they have a chance?
Calgary (11 points out of 8th), Colorado (16 points out of 8th), and NYI (23 points out of 8th) are all close enough to close the gap, and playing in bad enough divisions to give them a chance.
There is one rule in DHL – never count out the Flames. Calgary just keeps plugging away, winning as many as they lose. But a big week 16 win over LA could put the Flames into a playoff spot going into the matchup with Colorado, and additional matchups against the Jets and Flyers during the homestretch will surely give Calgary a chance to bank some points. Whether it will be enough to earn a playoff berth will likely come down to how the matchups of the other contenders against each other go. There is also a week 20 matchup against the Leafs that could be enticing if things break the Flames way over the next little while.
Colorado, on the other hand, was the pick of the pundits to win the Pacific. As a result, the Avs have the toughest schedule left in the league, with the Knights, Flames and Kings before facing the Wild, Canadiens and Rangers. Realistically, Colorado had to be in a much better spot than they are heading into this point in the season. They aren’t, and it says here the Avs will need a miracle to make up ground in the playoff race.
The Islanders are the most interesting team of the bunch. 23 points is a lot to make up, especially with 4 teams to leapfrog. But if the Isles can play their cross-town rivals in New York tough in week 16, they then get the Devils and Flyers back to back. That is a golden opportunity to make up serious ground – but in order to have a prayer, New York is going to have to win big over both Philly and New Jersey. After that the Islanders face Buffalo, Dallas and St. Louis, knowing that those teams will be fighting for their playoff lives. It is very unlikely that New York slides in, but if there is a miracle team out there, this could be the one.
5. Who is going to finish worst?
With LaFreniere waiting in the wings, New Jersey has the early jump on worst record and best odds. At 150 points, the Devils are 15 down on Winnipeg and 21 down on Philadelphia for the honour of worst in the league. And don’t count out LA. After a 14-0 shellacking by the Rangers, the Kings are only 25 points away from New Jersey’s pace.
Importantly, New Jersey and Philadelphia still have to play each other. Philly also has a week 19 matchup in LA. Is it possible that the Flyers could lose both of those weeks in a bad enough fashion to drop 21 points compared to NJ? Absolutely. Likely? Not really.
Winnipeg, on the other hand, has no games against any other terrible team left on its schedule. With 15 points to make up, the odds are pretty good that the Jets can be feeble enough down the stretch to take home the title.
That is, of course, if the Devils are good enough to at least be mediocore against Philly. If New Jersey gets blown out by the Flyers, the race to the bottom is going to be a tough one for Winnipeg to win.
We’re into the final inter-divisional battles, with only the homestretch left to go. There are a few playoff locks, some clear-cut division winners, and the bottom feeders have separated themselves, but there is still a big jumble from seeds 5 through 12 that will give fans plenty of reason to pay attention the final six weeks. Without further ado, let’s get into the battles (and locks)…
1. Presidents trophy a two-horse race?
It seems strange to write, but the two-time defending champion Minnesota Wild may already be out of the running for the President’s trophy. Currently sitting at 264 points, Minnesota finds itself 28 points behind Montreal and 42 behind New York for the league lead. And considering that the Wild have Dallas, St. Louis, Montreal and New York still to go in the final stretch, Minnesota seems like a pretty good bet to find itself in Seed #3 when the playoffs kick off.
Which leaves Montreal and New York as the last two contenders standing. Although the Rangers are up by 14 points heading into the final quarter, Montreal has the better overall stats and the pedigree of back-to-back Presidents trophies on its resume. Plus the teams have a week 19 matchup that will be must-watch viewing. But don’t underestimate the impact that the Metro division may have on this race. Montreal plays three playoff teams in Toronto, Buffalo and Ottawa in its next three weeks. In that same time, the Rangers play the Islanders, Devils and Flyers – teams that New York has collectively gone 58-19-13 against so far this year.
Keeping in mind that if everything holds to form, the Presidents Trophy winner should also avoid Minnesota until at least the finals, and this may be the most important race either of these franchises have ever embarked upon.
2. Fourth seed a lock?
Since losing to Colorado in week 10, the Vegas Golden Knights have been on a tear. The Knights have won 6 straight, including impressive victories over playoff contenders Ottawa and St. Louis in the last two weeks. Robin Lehner has been the stud the Knights were looking for in net. Vegas now finds itself 34 points up on Calgary for the Pacific Division lead.
If Vegas can maintain that lead during the next few weeks, it enters a home stretch of the schedule with matchups against bottom-feeders Winnipeg and New Jersey to pad some stats. There is a realistic chance that the Golden Knights could challenge the Wild for seed #3 – although it says here that Vegas will end up right where they are now, as a very dangerous #4 seed with the capacity for a long playoff run.
3. Will the real playoff contenders please stand up?
There are five good teams in a dog fight for the final four playoff seeds. And making it more interesting, they are all in either the Atlantic or the Central. Prime viewing abounds all through the divisional matchups over the next few weeks.
Currently the standings are:
Toronto in fifth with 255 points
Buffalo in sixth with 250 points
Dallas in seventh with 229 points
Ottawa in eighth with 229 points
St. Louis in ninth with 225 points
Toronto finds itself alone in 5th, after an amazing mid-season resurgence. Buffalo is only 5 points back of Toronto, sitting in 6th. And the Senators are only 26 back of the Leafs, sitting in 8th, although Ottawa has been in freefall losing the last three and four of five.
As of now the Leafs have beaten Buffalo twice, gone 1-1 against the Senators, and also split against the Canadiens. Buffalo has split against Ottawa but lost twice to Montreal. And Ottawa has also lost to Montreal twice. How those three teams handle the interdivisional matchups over the next three weeks may decide the fate of the playoff picture.
But don’t forget about the Central. Dallas has rebounded after a really poor start to the season, going 4-0-1 over its last five to climb into 7th. St. Louis, on the other hand, has gone 2-6-1 over its last nine weeks to fall out of the playoff picture entirely after an incredible start. Both of these teams could find a way in, especially if they can pad their totals against the Jets.
Keep in mind that the final week of the season sees Dallas vs Toronto in a tantalizing match that could decide the playoff fate of a bunch of teams.
4. Bubble teams hanging around, but do they have a chance?
Calgary (11 points out of 8th), Colorado (16 points out of 8th), and NYI (23 points out of 8th) are all close enough to close the gap, and playing in bad enough divisions to give them a chance.
There is one rule in DHL – never count out the Flames. Calgary just keeps plugging away, winning as many as they lose. But a big week 16 win over LA could put the Flames into a playoff spot going into the matchup with Colorado, and additional matchups against the Jets and Flyers during the homestretch will surely give Calgary a chance to bank some points. Whether it will be enough to earn a playoff berth will likely come down to how the matchups of the other contenders against each other go. There is also a week 20 matchup against the Leafs that could be enticing if things break the Flames way over the next little while.
Colorado, on the other hand, was the pick of the pundits to win the Pacific. As a result, the Avs have the toughest schedule left in the league, with the Knights, Flames and Kings before facing the Wild, Canadiens and Rangers. Realistically, Colorado had to be in a much better spot than they are heading into this point in the season. They aren’t, and it says here the Avs will need a miracle to make up ground in the playoff race.
The Islanders are the most interesting team of the bunch. 23 points is a lot to make up, especially with 4 teams to leapfrog. But if the Isles can play their cross-town rivals in New York tough in week 16, they then get the Devils and Flyers back to back. That is a golden opportunity to make up serious ground – but in order to have a prayer, New York is going to have to win big over both Philly and New Jersey. After that the Islanders face Buffalo, Dallas and St. Louis, knowing that those teams will be fighting for their playoff lives. It is very unlikely that New York slides in, but if there is a miracle team out there, this could be the one.
5. Who is going to finish worst?
With LaFreniere waiting in the wings, New Jersey has the early jump on worst record and best odds. At 150 points, the Devils are 15 down on Winnipeg and 21 down on Philadelphia for the honour of worst in the league. And don’t count out LA. After a 14-0 shellacking by the Rangers, the Kings are only 25 points away from New Jersey’s pace.
Importantly, New Jersey and Philadelphia still have to play each other. Philly also has a week 19 matchup in LA. Is it possible that the Flyers could lose both of those weeks in a bad enough fashion to drop 21 points compared to NJ? Absolutely. Likely? Not really.
Winnipeg, on the other hand, has no games against any other terrible team left on its schedule. With 15 points to make up, the odds are pretty good that the Jets can be feeble enough down the stretch to take home the title.
That is, of course, if the Devils are good enough to at least be mediocore against Philly. If New Jersey gets blown out by the Flyers, the race to the bottom is going to be a tough one for Winnipeg to win.