16 Thoughts (actually only 13), Playoff seeding edition
Feb 4, 2019 17:09:12 GMT
Josh - Dallas, Dave - Calgary, and 5 more like this
Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2019 17:09:12 GMT
Thirteen thoughts, playoff seeding edition
16 weeks down, five to go
As week 16 wraps up, we’ll take a quick look at where things stand after a wild week and then turn attention to the questions needing answers as the home stretch revs into high gear…
1. What the hell happened in week 16?
For starters, the Wild’s winning streak stretching back into the depths of last season was snapped by St. Louis in convincing fashion. Then the Sabres knocked off Montreal, handing the Habs their second loss of the season. And to cap it off, the team with the third-best record in the league, the Stars, got beat by the Jets! Can we chock it up to NHL bye-weeks and the All Star game weirdness? Or do the losses foreshadow something profound about how the league’s elites are built for the playoffs?
2. Do the Wild have enough goaltending?
It seems a little petty to worry too much about Minnesota’s first loss in like 40 weeks. But then again, we flagged the goaltending issue in Minnesota a long time ago and once again, the Achilles heel of this very good team has been exposed. In week 16, St. Louis won 4 goalie categories and took the PIM cat by a bunch. When you win 5 categories like that, it sets up a tough hurdle for even a very good team to overcome. The Blues also won hits, blocks, +/- and assists, but in reality they would probably only need to win two of those to take the week.
Of especially interest, the standings right now (if they hold) would set up a St. Louis – Minnesota first round matchup. The question in Minnesota is whether GM Peter will buck his usual trend and spend some assets on shoring up his goaltending.
3. Are the Sabres as good as they looked in Week 16?
In Montreal, where Buffalo escaped with a 7-6 victory, there is no obvious flaw in roster construction. Buffalo just beat the Habs, full stop. The teams split goalie stats, and even the categories that Montreal won were very tight. Not sure that Montreal GM Chris can do anything but shrug, given the closeness of the week. But it certainly looks as if the Sabres have some untapped potential in a lineup that has been hanging around 8th place all season long.
And don’t overlook the fact that if the standings hold up, we would see a Buffalo – Montreal matchup in round one.
4. What happened in Dallas?
Winnipeg – the team that had only won once all season – beat the Stars 8-6. This one is just weird. Although when you take a dive into the numbers, the Jets won all 5 goalie categories with an unbelievable performance. 6 wins, 1.48 GAA, 214 saves, .960 save %, and a shutout. The worst goalie team in the league just saw its stable of backups post the best goalie line of any team this season. Not much Dallas GM Josh can do with this information, except be glad the Jets aren’t making the playoffs.
5. Sens stick a pin in Leafs
Toronto had won four of its last five to make a late-season playoff push coming into week 16, including an 11-2 beatdown of the Senators in week 11. Ottawa, on the other hand, had gone 1-4-1 in its last six. So of course, in the weirdness that was week 16, the Senators absolutely stomped the Leafs 11-2. The loss drops Toronto 23 points out of 8th, with a handful of teams to leap. It also solidifies Ottawa’s position as the all-important 6th seed, with an 18 point lead on the Blues.
6. Rangers pushing for leaderboard?
New York dismantled the Islanders 12-2, once again padding its stats at the expense of the weakest division in the league. But the real question in Manhattan is whether the team can catch Montreal and Minnesota and somehow sneak into 1st overall, thereby avoiding both of the juggernauts until the finals. Following week 16, New York sits 19 points back of the 2nd place Wild and 23 points back of the Canadiens. And considering that both those teams are stacked, the odds are not in New York’s favour. Adding to the intrigue, however, is that New York plays Minnesota in week 19 and Montreal in week 20. After two more Metro matchups, the Rangers might be close enough by that point to have a chance.
7. Flames burning out?
Calgary is still hanging onto 1st in the Pacific, and 4th overall, despite being hammered by LA 10 – 3 in week 16. That is, of course, the last place in the Pacific LA Kings, who also are in the Process of dismantling a once-formidable roster. The Flames are still 22 points up on the Golden Knights for the division title, but if Vegas can get a big win in week 18 when the two teams meet, things are going to get very hot in Calgary. It seems very unlikely the Pacific champ, whoever it is, is going to catch New York for 3rd overall. Which means a likely date with Dallas is in the works, and there’s no predictor that would make any of these Pacific teams a favourite against the Stars in round one. But still, a division title and a matchup against Dallas surely beats scrapping for 8th and getting Montreal in round one.
8. Devils shoot themselves in foot
New Jersey must not have read the memo about the lottery odds. The Devils went into another Metro barnburner against the Flyers and won! God help them. It was only 8-6 so the victory did not completely eliminate New Jersey’s chances at Jack Hughes, but after week 16 the Devils sit in 13th. No one is catching the Jets for worst overall, but with a serious effort to lose the Devils have a chance to drop below the Islanders and Flyers into 15th. Not that we encourage tanking or anything.
9. The Strong get Stronger
Also of note during week 16 were two major blockbusters, both involving LA. First, Minnesota acquired Doughty, Giroux and Corry Perry from the Kings in exchange for William Karlson, Brandon Saad, picks and some very good prospects. The trade makes the Wild marginally better (although doesn’t address its biggest weakness), while speeding up the LA rebuild. Not a bad deal all around.
Not to be outdone, Montreal upped the ante and acquired Sidney Crosby and Blake Wheeler from those same Kings for Drouin, JT Miller, Colin White and a bunch of picks. It was well known throughout the league that the Habs wanted rid of Drouin and Miller, so no surprise there. But the shockwaves were that Sid the Kid got dealt for what is somewhat of an underwhelming return. Wheeler is good but getting old, but Crosby still has three or four really good years and no one wants to see him in Canadiens red.
The end result of the deals is that Montreal and Minnesota have made themselves stronger, while LA picked up some good young pieces to help out the rebuild. A loss for parity, but somewhere George Steinbrenner is smiling.
10. Battle for 8th
Vegas’ win in week 16 was huge, for two reasons. The Knights are now only one point back of Buffalo for the final playoff spot, and also in striking distance of 1st in the Pacific. It also knocked the Avalanche down a peg, dropping Colorado to seven points out of the playoff picture and ensuring that Vegas has the tiebreaker over Colorado should they tie.
At this point, LA is only 19 points out of 8th but with the teardown in full effect, very little chance that the Kings claw their way in. That leaves the aforementioned Sabres, Knights and Avs to battle it out for the final spot.
Buffalo plays Toronto, Ottawa, New Jersey, Las Vegas and Dallas.
LV plays Calgary, LA, Philly, Buffalo, and Toronto.
Colorado plays LA, Calgary, Winnipeg, Dallas, and New Jersey.
No easy path to the playoffs for any of them. But that Week 20 Buffalo – Las Vegas matchup sure looks juicy.
11. St. Louis locked in as 7th?
The Blues are 16 points up on 8th, and 18 points down on 6th. Lord knows they’d love to catch the Senators and get out of a Wild or Habs round one matchup. And with Winnipeg, Toronto and Philly still left to play, there is a chance that St. Louis could go on a run and close that gap with Ottawa. It all starts with Dallas in week 17, which will tell us a lot about the Blues chances of getting out of 7th. Also important to note that the Senators have a pretty tough final five weeks, with four of its last five opponents currently in a playoff position.
At this point, it is unlikely that St. Louis falls completely out of the playoff picture (barring a complete collapse), which means the Blues should break one of the longest playoff droughts in the DHL.
12. Stars locked into 5th?
Dallas is still the most intriguing team for the playoff picture. Only 11 points back of Minnesota for the Division title, the Stars blew a huge opportunity to make gains with the loss to Winnipeg. But the Stars still have a week 18 matchup in Minny to finally get over the hump and beat their arch-nemesis. If that happens, suddenly the Central is up for grabs, especially considering that the Wild play Montreal, LA and New York Rangers during the final three weeks while Dallas has Ottawa, Buffalo and Colorado.
There is no doubt that either Dallas or Minnesota is best served by finishing in the 2nd seed, setting up a potential semi-final matchup against (likely) New York and avoiding Montreal until the finals. The next few weeks will be very interesting to watch how the Stars align.
13. Top spot still up for grabs
Only four points separate the Wild and Habs. Of course, who knows what happens with Dallas and whether Minnesota can even hang onto to its Central title. But if the Wild can set aside that challenge, the final week of the season will see the Canadiens and Wild battle it out with potentially 1st overall on the line. Of course, the loser of that race may end up better off. But everyone wants a shot at the President Trophy, right?
16 weeks down, five to go
As week 16 wraps up, we’ll take a quick look at where things stand after a wild week and then turn attention to the questions needing answers as the home stretch revs into high gear…
1. What the hell happened in week 16?
For starters, the Wild’s winning streak stretching back into the depths of last season was snapped by St. Louis in convincing fashion. Then the Sabres knocked off Montreal, handing the Habs their second loss of the season. And to cap it off, the team with the third-best record in the league, the Stars, got beat by the Jets! Can we chock it up to NHL bye-weeks and the All Star game weirdness? Or do the losses foreshadow something profound about how the league’s elites are built for the playoffs?
2. Do the Wild have enough goaltending?
It seems a little petty to worry too much about Minnesota’s first loss in like 40 weeks. But then again, we flagged the goaltending issue in Minnesota a long time ago and once again, the Achilles heel of this very good team has been exposed. In week 16, St. Louis won 4 goalie categories and took the PIM cat by a bunch. When you win 5 categories like that, it sets up a tough hurdle for even a very good team to overcome. The Blues also won hits, blocks, +/- and assists, but in reality they would probably only need to win two of those to take the week.
Of especially interest, the standings right now (if they hold) would set up a St. Louis – Minnesota first round matchup. The question in Minnesota is whether GM Peter will buck his usual trend and spend some assets on shoring up his goaltending.
3. Are the Sabres as good as they looked in Week 16?
In Montreal, where Buffalo escaped with a 7-6 victory, there is no obvious flaw in roster construction. Buffalo just beat the Habs, full stop. The teams split goalie stats, and even the categories that Montreal won were very tight. Not sure that Montreal GM Chris can do anything but shrug, given the closeness of the week. But it certainly looks as if the Sabres have some untapped potential in a lineup that has been hanging around 8th place all season long.
And don’t overlook the fact that if the standings hold up, we would see a Buffalo – Montreal matchup in round one.
4. What happened in Dallas?
Winnipeg – the team that had only won once all season – beat the Stars 8-6. This one is just weird. Although when you take a dive into the numbers, the Jets won all 5 goalie categories with an unbelievable performance. 6 wins, 1.48 GAA, 214 saves, .960 save %, and a shutout. The worst goalie team in the league just saw its stable of backups post the best goalie line of any team this season. Not much Dallas GM Josh can do with this information, except be glad the Jets aren’t making the playoffs.
5. Sens stick a pin in Leafs
Toronto had won four of its last five to make a late-season playoff push coming into week 16, including an 11-2 beatdown of the Senators in week 11. Ottawa, on the other hand, had gone 1-4-1 in its last six. So of course, in the weirdness that was week 16, the Senators absolutely stomped the Leafs 11-2. The loss drops Toronto 23 points out of 8th, with a handful of teams to leap. It also solidifies Ottawa’s position as the all-important 6th seed, with an 18 point lead on the Blues.
6. Rangers pushing for leaderboard?
New York dismantled the Islanders 12-2, once again padding its stats at the expense of the weakest division in the league. But the real question in Manhattan is whether the team can catch Montreal and Minnesota and somehow sneak into 1st overall, thereby avoiding both of the juggernauts until the finals. Following week 16, New York sits 19 points back of the 2nd place Wild and 23 points back of the Canadiens. And considering that both those teams are stacked, the odds are not in New York’s favour. Adding to the intrigue, however, is that New York plays Minnesota in week 19 and Montreal in week 20. After two more Metro matchups, the Rangers might be close enough by that point to have a chance.
7. Flames burning out?
Calgary is still hanging onto 1st in the Pacific, and 4th overall, despite being hammered by LA 10 – 3 in week 16. That is, of course, the last place in the Pacific LA Kings, who also are in the Process of dismantling a once-formidable roster. The Flames are still 22 points up on the Golden Knights for the division title, but if Vegas can get a big win in week 18 when the two teams meet, things are going to get very hot in Calgary. It seems very unlikely the Pacific champ, whoever it is, is going to catch New York for 3rd overall. Which means a likely date with Dallas is in the works, and there’s no predictor that would make any of these Pacific teams a favourite against the Stars in round one. But still, a division title and a matchup against Dallas surely beats scrapping for 8th and getting Montreal in round one.
8. Devils shoot themselves in foot
New Jersey must not have read the memo about the lottery odds. The Devils went into another Metro barnburner against the Flyers and won! God help them. It was only 8-6 so the victory did not completely eliminate New Jersey’s chances at Jack Hughes, but after week 16 the Devils sit in 13th. No one is catching the Jets for worst overall, but with a serious effort to lose the Devils have a chance to drop below the Islanders and Flyers into 15th. Not that we encourage tanking or anything.
9. The Strong get Stronger
Also of note during week 16 were two major blockbusters, both involving LA. First, Minnesota acquired Doughty, Giroux and Corry Perry from the Kings in exchange for William Karlson, Brandon Saad, picks and some very good prospects. The trade makes the Wild marginally better (although doesn’t address its biggest weakness), while speeding up the LA rebuild. Not a bad deal all around.
Not to be outdone, Montreal upped the ante and acquired Sidney Crosby and Blake Wheeler from those same Kings for Drouin, JT Miller, Colin White and a bunch of picks. It was well known throughout the league that the Habs wanted rid of Drouin and Miller, so no surprise there. But the shockwaves were that Sid the Kid got dealt for what is somewhat of an underwhelming return. Wheeler is good but getting old, but Crosby still has three or four really good years and no one wants to see him in Canadiens red.
The end result of the deals is that Montreal and Minnesota have made themselves stronger, while LA picked up some good young pieces to help out the rebuild. A loss for parity, but somewhere George Steinbrenner is smiling.
10. Battle for 8th
Vegas’ win in week 16 was huge, for two reasons. The Knights are now only one point back of Buffalo for the final playoff spot, and also in striking distance of 1st in the Pacific. It also knocked the Avalanche down a peg, dropping Colorado to seven points out of the playoff picture and ensuring that Vegas has the tiebreaker over Colorado should they tie.
At this point, LA is only 19 points out of 8th but with the teardown in full effect, very little chance that the Kings claw their way in. That leaves the aforementioned Sabres, Knights and Avs to battle it out for the final spot.
Buffalo plays Toronto, Ottawa, New Jersey, Las Vegas and Dallas.
LV plays Calgary, LA, Philly, Buffalo, and Toronto.
Colorado plays LA, Calgary, Winnipeg, Dallas, and New Jersey.
No easy path to the playoffs for any of them. But that Week 20 Buffalo – Las Vegas matchup sure looks juicy.
11. St. Louis locked in as 7th?
The Blues are 16 points up on 8th, and 18 points down on 6th. Lord knows they’d love to catch the Senators and get out of a Wild or Habs round one matchup. And with Winnipeg, Toronto and Philly still left to play, there is a chance that St. Louis could go on a run and close that gap with Ottawa. It all starts with Dallas in week 17, which will tell us a lot about the Blues chances of getting out of 7th. Also important to note that the Senators have a pretty tough final five weeks, with four of its last five opponents currently in a playoff position.
At this point, it is unlikely that St. Louis falls completely out of the playoff picture (barring a complete collapse), which means the Blues should break one of the longest playoff droughts in the DHL.
12. Stars locked into 5th?
Dallas is still the most intriguing team for the playoff picture. Only 11 points back of Minnesota for the Division title, the Stars blew a huge opportunity to make gains with the loss to Winnipeg. But the Stars still have a week 18 matchup in Minny to finally get over the hump and beat their arch-nemesis. If that happens, suddenly the Central is up for grabs, especially considering that the Wild play Montreal, LA and New York Rangers during the final three weeks while Dallas has Ottawa, Buffalo and Colorado.
There is no doubt that either Dallas or Minnesota is best served by finishing in the 2nd seed, setting up a potential semi-final matchup against (likely) New York and avoiding Montreal until the finals. The next few weeks will be very interesting to watch how the Stars align.
13. Top spot still up for grabs
Only four points separate the Wild and Habs. Of course, who knows what happens with Dallas and whether Minnesota can even hang onto to its Central title. But if the Wild can set aside that challenge, the final week of the season will see the Canadiens and Wild battle it out with potentially 1st overall on the line. Of course, the loser of that race may end up better off. But everyone wants a shot at the President Trophy, right?